Changing Trade

Source of the Chart Junk: The Economist

Related;
World Trade Report 2008: Trade in a Globalizing World

Recently from UN

World Health Statistics 2008

2008 World Economic and Social Survey

Recently from IMF/World Bank

Global Monitoring Report 2008

Launching the Starbucks Index

Global Financial Stability Report Press Conference

Soul Searching at the World Bank?

The current most popular article at the World Bank-

The Politics, Power, and Pathologies of International Organizations
by Barnett, Michael and Finnemore, Martha;

International Relations scholars have vigorous theories to explain why international organizations (IOs) are created, but they have paid little attention to IO behavior and whether IOs actually do what their creators intend. This blind spot flows logically from the economic theories of organization that have dominated the study of international institutions and regimes. To recover the agency and autonomy of IOs, we offer a constructivist approach. Building on Max Weber's well-known analysis of bureaucracy, we argue that IOs are much more powerful than even neoliberals have argued, and that the same characteristics of bureaucracy that make IOs powerful can also make them prone to dysfunctional behavior. IOs are powerful because, like all bureaucracies, they make rules, and, in so doing, they create social knowledge. IOs deploy this knowledge in ways that define shared international tasks, create new categories of actors, form new interests for actors, and transfer new models of political organization around the world. However, the same normative valuation on impersonal tasks, create new categories of actors, form new interests for actors, and transfer new models of political organization around the world. However, the same normative valuation on impersonal rules that defines bureaucracies and makes them powerful in modern life can also make them unresponsive to their environments, obsessed with their own rules at the expense of primary missions, and ultimately produce inefficient and self-defeating behavior. Sociological and constructivist approaches thus allow us to expand the research agenda beyond IO creation and to ask important questions about the consequences of global bureaucratization and the effects of IOs in world politics

The second most popular is A. Cukierman's, "The Limits of Transparency",

For Comment; Does this mean anything about the current thinking at the World Bank?

World Bank on Cocaine

Researchers at World Bank are doing some serious research?

Evo, Pablo, Tony, Diego, and Sonny - general equilibrium analysis of the illegal drugs market

Can production and trafficking of illicit drugs be reduced or merely shifted ?

The historical foundations of the narcotic drug control regime

Operationalizing 'Agriculture for Development '

A recent event from the World Bank-

Operationalizing the WDR08: Agriculture for Development

The World Bank’s annual World Development Report (WDR) is a comprehensive study on the economic, social and environmental state of the world. Each year, the report provides an in depth analysis focused on a specific aspect of development. For the first time in 25 years, the WDR addressed issues on agriculture and development. On February 19, 2008, major contributors to the report met at the World Bank in Washington, DC and presented their findings. They shared their recommendations on how the Bank might best operationalize the WDR, noting that one of the more significant challenges the Bank faces is an increasingly aggressive and competitive global market environment.

The panel was moderated by Kristalina Georgieva, Director for Strategy & Operations, Sustainable Development Network (SDN). Panel members included Juergen Voegele, former Director for Agriculture in the Central Network, Shantayanan Devarajan, Chief Economist for South Asia, Derek Byerlee, Sr. Advisor Africa Region and the lead on the World Development Report Team, and Alan Gelb , Director of Development Policy, DEC.

Gelb, spoke of the positive response to the WDR. He attributed it to the Bank’s goal of achieving the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG): eradicating poverty and hunger. If this MDG is to be met, he said, there must be agricultural progress in the rural areas, where 75% of the poor live and work.

Byerlee discussed feedback from the dissemination process. He attributed the recent interest in agri-business to the increasingly high prices for many agricultural commodities. He also noted an increased and aggressive interest by the private sector. Derrick presented his ideas on the operational aspects of the report, his vision and the accompanying challenges. The report findings revealed a significant shift toward increased investment in agriculture, especially in countries such as Malawi, Kenya, Vietnam, and India. He emphasized the need for better understanding of the political economy surrounding agricultural policy decisions. One of the biggest challenges will be developing the capacity to implement complex and multi-sectoral agricultural programs, Byerlee said.

Devarajan said the WDR provides a useful framework for improving Agricultural Productivity Growth (AGP) in South Asia. He identified AGP as a key problem for operationalization of the WDR in South Asia. While the country has been growing at 6 to 7% a year, poverty has not declined. He highlighted what he sees as barriers toward improving agricultural productivity.

Voegele, quizzed the audience and asked if there were country directors present, if anyone had discussed the WDR with a country director and of those present, and how many had read the report. Voegele asked these questions in order to emphasize the need for staff to more aggressively disseminate the messages of the report. He stated that convincing country directors would one of the more significant challenges. A questions and comments session followed and topics for the second session were introduced.

How do you 'operationalize' a report in the World Bank?

Reports Watch

Europe in a Globalised World

Chapter 1
The European Economy: Macroeconomic Outlook and Policy
Chapter 2
How much real dollar depreciation is needed to correct global imbalances?
Chapter 3
The effect of globalisation on Western European jobs: curse or blessing?
Chapter 4
Industrial policy
Chapter 5
Global warming: The neglected supply side

Hedge Funds: Regulators and Market Participants Are Taking Steps to Strengthen Market Discipline, but Continued Attention Is Needed

Since the 1998 near collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), a large hedge fund--a pooled investment vehicle that is privately managed and often engages in active trading of various types of securities and commodity futures and options--the number of hedge funds has grown, and they have attracted investments from institutional investors such as pension plans. Hedge funds generally are recognized as important sources of liquidity and as holders and managers of risks in the capital markets. Although the market impacts of recent hedge fund near collapses were less severe than that of LTCM, they recalled concerns about risks associated with hedge funds and they highlighted the continuing relevance of questions raised over LTCM. This report (1) describes how federal financial regulators oversee hedge fund-related activities under their existing authorities; (2) examines what measures investors, creditors, and counterparties have taken to impose market discipline on hedge funds; and (3) explores the potential for systemic risk from hedge fund-related activities and describes actions regulators have taken to address this risk. In conducting this study, GAO reviewed regulators' policy documents and examinations and industry reports and interviewed regulatory and industry officials, and academics. Regulators only provided technical comments on a draft of this report, which GAO has incorporated into the report as appropriate.

Under the existing regulatory structure, the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission can provide direct oversight of registered hedge fund advisers, and along with federal bank regulators, they monitor hedge fund-related activities conducted at their regulated entities. Since LTCM's near collapse, regulators generally have increased reviews--by such means as targeted examinations--of systems and policies of their regulated entities to mitigate counterparty credit risks, including those involving hedge funds. Although some examinations found that banks generally have strengthened practices for managing risk exposures to hedge funds, regulators recommended that they enhance firmwide risk management systems and practices, including expanded stress testing. Regulated entities have the responsibility to practice prudent risk management standards, but prudent standards do not guarantee prudent practices. As such, it will be important for regulators to show continued vigilance in overseeing hedge fund-related activities. According to market participants, hedge fund advisers have improved disclosures and transparency about their operations since LTCM as a result of industry guidance issued and pressure from investors and creditors and counterparties (such as prime brokers). But market participants also suggested that not all investors have the capacity to analyze the information they receive from hedge funds. Regulators and market participants said that creditors and counterparties have generally conducted more due diligence and tightened their credit standards for hedge funds. However, several factors may limit the effectiveness of market discipline or illustrate failures to properly exercise it. For example, because most large hedge funds use multiple prime brokers as service providers, no one broker may have all the data necessary to assess the total leverage of a hedge fund client. Further, if the risk controls of creditors and counterparties are inadequate, their actions may not prevent hedge funds from taking excessive risk. These factors can contribute to conditions that create systemic risk if breakdowns in market discipline and risk controls are sufficiently severe that losses by hedge funds in turn cause significant losses at key intermediaries or in financial markets. Financial regulators and industry participants remain concerned about the adequacy of counterparty credit risk management at major financial institutions because it is a key factor in controlling the potential for hedge funds to become a source of systemic risk. Regulators have used risk-focused and principles-based approaches to better understand the potential for systemic risk and respond more effectively to financial shocks that threaten to affect the financial system. For instance, regulators have collaborated to examine some hedge fund activities across regulated entities. The President's Working Group has taken steps such as issuing guidance and forming two private sector groups to develop best practices to enhance market discipline. GAO views these as positive steps, but it is too soon to evaluate their effectiveness.

The Run on the Rock and its lessons

Two highly readable Reports on the lessons learnt from the Northern Rock debacle have been published recently. The first is the Treasury Committee Report The Run on the Rock published on January 26, 2008. The second is Financial stability and depositor protection: strengthening the framework published jointly by HM Treasury, the Financial Services Authority (FSA) and the Bank of England on January 30, 2008. The publication of this document launches a consultation on the proposals contained in it for domestic and international action to enhance financial stability. This blog will deal mainly with the Treasury Report.

The Treasury Report covers five areas: (1) Strengthening the financial system through domestic and international actions; (2) Reducing the likelihood of banks failing; (3) Reducing the impact of failing banks; (4) Deposit insurance: and (5) Strengthening the Bank of England and improving the operation of the Tripartite Arrangement.

-Lessons from the Rock

Explainers

From St.Louis Fed;

Thinking Like a Central Banker
by William Poole

The Microfinance Revolution: An Overview
by Rajdeep Sengupta and Craig P. Aubuchon

A Primer on the Mortgage Market and Mortgage Finance

Australia's Productivity Commission critiques Stern Report

The Productivity Commission today released a staff working paper titled The Stern Review: an assessment of its methodology. This technical paper contains a detailed examination of key elements of the Review’s analytical approach. Originally prepared as an internal research memorandum following release of the Stern Review’s report, the paper is being made more widely available given its ongoing relevance in light of Australia’s Garnaut Review.

The staff paper finds that the Stern Review made some important analytical advances. The Review sought to move beyond analysis based on the mean expected outcome to one that incorporates low probability, but potentially catastrophic, events at the tail of probability distributions. The Review also attempted a more comprehensive coverage of damage costs than most previous studies.

The paper also finds that value judgements and ethical perspectives in key parts of the Stern Review’s analysis led to estimates of future economic damages being substantially higher, and abatement costs lower, than most previous studies. The paper notes that the report could usefully have included more sensitivity analysis to highlight to decisionmakers the consequences of alternative assumptions or judgements.

Global unemployment to increase

Global Employment Trends - 2008

Guides for NGOs

NGO Law and Governance: A Resource Book

ADBI's 100 Tips 100 Tools for Better Governed NGOs

Finding Aid

Effects of Early Nutritional Interventions on the Development of Atopic Disease in Infants and Children: The Role of Maternal Dietary Restriction,...

That is the title of a new report from The American Academy of Pediatrics;

The American Academy of Pediatrics is updating earlier suggestions for the prevention of allergies in infants and children by saying that abstaining from certain foods during pregnancy does not ensure an allergy-free child.

In 2000, the organization advised mothers with a family history of allergies to avoid consuming cow's milk, eggs, fish, peanuts and tree nuts while breast-feeding their babies. The AAP also provided mothers with a recommended schedule for introducing certain risky foods (no solid foods before 6 months of age, no dairy products before the age of 1, no eggs before the age of 2, etc).

A new guidance reports is available now though, which reevaluates recommendations made seven years ago. It is published in the January issue of the journal Pediatrics.

While previous advice on restrictions from both the mothers and the babies’ diets has been removed, breast-feeding is still highly recommended.

The report says that there is no convincing evidence that women who avoid peanuts or other foods during pregnancy or breast-feeding lower their child's risk of allergies, reports the Associated Press.

As opposed to the advice given seven years ago, that a hypoallergenic or soy milk formula should be used with infants at risk of developing allergies, the current guideline says there is no good evidence that soy-based formulas prevent allergies.

The new recommendations add that convincing evidence is also lacking to support the delay of introduction of foods such as eggs, fish or peanut butter to children in an effort to prevent allergies.

However, solid food should not be fed to babies before 4 to 6 months of age.

The AAP still strongly advises mothers to breast-feed, noting that exclusive breast-feeding for at least four months in babies with a family history of allergies can lessen the risk of rashes and allergy to cow's milk.

The organization also says exclusive breast-feeding for at least three months has been shown to protect against wheezing in babies; it is not clear yet whether it prevents asthma in older children.

Dr. Scott Sicherer of the Mount Sinai School of Medicine's Jaffe Food Allergy Institute in New York, who helped write the new guideline, was quoted by the AP as saying: “You never know what's going to come around the corner, but in the past seven years there hasn't been enough evidence to support the old recommendations.”

-Preventing Allergies in Children: Updated Advice

Related;
Breast-Feeding Seems to Protect Against Some Allergies

"The best prevention for atopic [allergic] disease is exclusive breast-feeding for four months," he added. "And if your infant comes from a family with significant atopic disease, then weaning from breast milk to a partially or extensively hydrolyzed [hypoallergenic] formula [without cow milk protein] may delay or prevent the onset of atopic disease, especially atopic dermatitis [eczema]."

Greer added that this recommendation would also apply to formula-fed infants who are at risk for atopic disease.

The timing and introduction of solid foods has no protective effect on the prevention of atopic disease, according to the new report...

"It's a mixed picture," Wu said. "We don't have proven efficacy for breast-feeding. It may mean that we need more robust studies and a longer-term follow-up for kids."

The new report is titled "Effects of Early Nutritional Interventions on the Development of Atopic Disease in Infants and Children: The Role of Maternal Dietary Restriction, Breastfeeding, Timing of Introduction of Complementary Foods, and Hydrolyzed Formulas."

A robust critique of the so-called 'economics of happiness'

In Happiness, Economics and Public Policy, Helen Johns and Paul Ormerod analyse the economic research that underlies politicians’ growing preoccupation with measures of ‘wellbeing’.

From World Bank Research

World Bank Research E-Newsletter

-World Development Report 2009

Economic activity becomes increasingly concentrated with development. As this happens, substantial disparities in welfare can emerge between rural and urban areas, between leading and lagging regions within countries and, perhaps most dramatically, between countries in different parts of the world. The objective of the World Development Report (WDR) 2009 "Seeing Development in 3D" is to identify and understand the interactions between economic geography, growth, and living standards, and to draw the implications of these interactions for policy. WDR 2009 charts the changes in the three spatial dimensions of economic activity and household welfare: rising density, falling distance and persisting division. The WDR will highlight the dimensions and significance of spatial forces that shape economic development; and recommend policies to facilitate the spatial transformations necessary to sustain economic growth, reduce disparities in welfare, and reduce poverty. The report aims to reframe three important policy debates: on urbanization in developing countries; on territorial development policies; and on the pros and cons of regional integration.

Analyzing health equity using household survey data

Equity has long been considered an important goal in the health sector. Yet inequalities persist between poor people and those who are better off, with the poor tending to suffer higher rates of mortality. They also often tend to use health services less, despite having higher levels of need. A new book entitled “Analyzing Health Equity Using Household Survey Data” by O’Donnell, Doorslaer, Wagstaff, and Lindelow provides rigorous analytic techniques for both measurement and analysis of such inequalities, with a view to stimulating health equity research that can support the design and evaluation of health policies and programs. The book offers researchers and analysts a step-by-step practical guide to key analytic techniques in health equity analysis, with examples and computer code, mostly for the Stata program.

Shift work may cause cancer

Shift workers and firefighters have a higher risk of cancer than the general population and such work should be classified as probably or possibly carcinogenic, the International Agency for Research on Cancer said on Friday.

A team of 24 scientists who sifted through the evidence said more studies must confirm the link, but found that shift work that disturbs the body's internal clock appears to have cancer-causing effects, too.

This internal clock regulates circadian rhythms, a complex system that signals cells to produce various hormones at various times.

"Shiftwork that involves circadian disruption is probably carcinogenic to humans," the French-based IARC, the cancer agency of the World Health Organization, said in a statement. "Occupational exposure as a firefighter is possibly carcinogenic to humans," it added.

The statement, published as what the IARC calls a monograph, could affect a significant number of people.

"Nearly 20 percent of the working population in Europe and North America is engaged in shiftwork. Shiftwork is most prevalent in the health-care, industrial, transportation, communications, and hospitality sectors," the IARC said

-Shift work may cause cancer, world agency says

Some of their interesting monographs;
Betel-quid and areca-nut chewing and some areca-nut-derived nitrosamines

Smokeless Tobacco Products

Human Development Report 2007/2008

Fighting climate change: Human solidarity in a divided world

IMF Showcase

IMF Showcases its technical assistance and relevance;

Budget Reform Holds Promise in Mozambique
A cornerstone of Mozambique's reconstruction since the end of its civil war in 1992 has been the committed application of far-reaching, donor-funded and IMF-supported public financial management reform.

Tailoring Regulation for Central America
With the help of IMF technical assistance and funding from Spain, Central America has devised a strategy to strengthen the supervision of growing cross-border consolidated financial operations.

Assessing Chile's Reserve Management
As part of a recent technical assistance project, IMF experts assessed the capacity of Chile's central bank to administer two sovereign wealth funds set up in 2006 to manage the country's copper windfall revenues.

IMF Backs UAE in Statistics Overhaul
The United Arab Emirates, determined to improve its statistical system, is constructing a monthly consumer price index—set for introduction in early 2009—with support of IMF technical assistance.

Helping Postconflict Nations Rebuild
Three new books tell the story of how technical assistance by international institutions has, and can, make a big difference in the recovery of postconflict countries.

Building Monetary and Financial Systems: Case Studies in Technical Assistance, Charles Enoch, Karl Habermeier, Marta Castello-Branco (eds.), International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C., 2007, $29.

One Currency for Bosnia: Creating the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Warren Coats, Jameson Books, Illinois, 2007, $42.50.

United Nations Development Aid: A Study in History and Politics, Digambar Bhouraskar, Academic Foundation, New Delhi, 2007, Rs. 695.

Climate Change - Getting it Right

Another report - this time from Australia;

Chapter 4: Reviewing Stern - Lessons for Australia By Robert Mendelsohn
Although the Stern Review is sometimes cited as an authoritative account of the economics of climate change, it is more of an advocacy paper for aggressive short-term abatement than a balanced economic analysis. The Stern Review makes four assumptions to support capping greenhouse gas concentrations at 550 parts per million (ppm). First, it examines the cost of its preferred policy only against doing nothing at all. It does not consider more efficient policy alternatives. Second, it chooses a very low discount rate to try to hide the long lag between mitigation costs and climate benefits. Third, it exaggerates climate damages, looking at only the worstcase scenarios. Fourth, it takes a very optimistic view of the cost of abatement, assuming a rapid rate of prolonged technical change will make mitigation inexpensive. Consequently, the Stern Review is not a balanced assessment of the costs and benefits of climate change and the recommended policy of aggressive near-term abatement is most likely a terrible waste of resources. Australia’s Garnaut Climate Change Review should be careful to avoid these same biases.

Chapter 6: Climate change and India - A perspective from the developing world By Jyoti Parikh

The race is on to find a post-Kyoto international framework. Whatever replaces Kyoto will only be effective if it is undertaken as a parallel effort and not instead of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which has been painstakingly created. The UNFCCC has not only ensured the participation of a large number of countries year after year, but also has a framework that could be built upon and expanded with various programs, like a carbon emissions trading scheme. This paper discusses various alternatives for a post-Kyoto regime. It focuses on a three-tier system, a proposal that considers per capita global average emissions as a reference point. It also briefly discusses the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (AP6), in which Australia is playing a leading role. These issues are discussed in the context of the developing countries, especially as they relate to their needs and capabilities. The paper ends with a look at some of the strategies and polices for carbon emissions reduction in India.

Chapter 7: The carbon tax - An alternative to carbon trading By Robert Shapiro

A solid consensus has emerged among scientists and most public officials around the world that emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, especially carbon dioxide (CO2), contribute significantly to climate changes which could have very serious, adverse effects. Since every industrialised nation produces these emissions they all need to be part of the global effort to control them. This paper examines the two most prominent strategies for reducing greenhouse gases: a global system of national caps on the emissions and tradable permits, modelled on the Kyoto Protocol, and global, harmonised, net carbon based taxes. It finds that cap-and-trade systems can achieve their emissions targets year by year, but will introduce significant additional volatility in energy prices. These systems also entail substantial administrative complexities and costs, and their emissions goals can be undermined by evasion and manipulation. Carbon taxes are less certain to achieve their emissions targets year by year, but their levels can be adjusted to minimise this deficiency. They are also easier and less expensive to administer, less vulnerable to manipulation and evasion, and provide more reliable incentives to develop and use alternative fuels and more energy-efficient technologies. Based on economic analyses and evidence, we conclude that carbon taxes are the more environmentally effective and economically efficient strategy for addressing climate change.

Chapter 8: Managing price and targets - Why a hybrid policy is better for Australia By Warwick McKibbin and Peter Wilcoxen

Promising to reach an emissions target on a precise timetable is a popular approach to climate policy – indeed it underlies the Kyoto Protocol. Despite its popularity, there are many problems with this strategy. A better approach is to specify a target but to allow costs to determine the speed at which the target is approached. This can be achieved using a hybrid of targets and emission fees. This paper summarises the targets and timetables approach to climate policy and how it is usually implemented in cap-and-trade permit markets. However, as a basis for domestic policy or for an international climate regime there are major flaws in this approach. We then present the McKibbin Wilcoxen hybrid approach and compare it to the approach proposed by the Prime Minister’s Emissions Trading Task Group.

Chapter 9: Castles in the ground - The prospects for carbon capture and storage By Peter Cook

Carbon dioxide emissions and atmospheric concentrations continue to rise. At the same time, projections of world energy demand indicate increasing use of fossil fuels, especially coal. Because of this, there is interest in using carbon capture and storage technologies as a mitigation option, particularly in Australia because of its dependency on fossil fuels for electricity generation and the importance of its fossil fuel exports. Capture options include post-combustion capture (PCC), integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) and oxyfuels combustion. Carbon dioxide can be stored in the ocean and in minerals, but by far the most likely option is storage in suitable geological locations. Australia appears to have abundant geological storage capacity, particularly in saline formations and to a lesser extent in depleted oil and gas fields. Australian capture and storage projects are planned for most states. Acceptance by the community will be dependent in part on cost, but confidence that the technology is safe will be crucial. This will require an effective regulatory regime and appropriate monitoring and verification. For capture and storage to play its part in reducing global emissions, we must aim at large-scale deployment by 2015–2020. Australia could become an early mover in the application of carbon dioxide capture and geological storage.

Oil Prices and MDGs

UN publications has a tendency to link everything to MDGs- have a look at the following recent report.
Overcoming Vulnerability to Rising Oil Prices: Options for Asia and the Pacific


Key Words; Oil Price Vulnerability Index

Via Thailand Crisis