America's Fiscal Future

A mandatory presentation for every American;

America's Fiscal Future,by David M. Walker,Comptroller General of the United States

Superstar Podcasts

Angus Maddison, professor of economics at the University of Groningen and author of "Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD: Essays in Macro-Economic History," spoke about his book, global warming and the outlook for the world's econom

Munger on Fair Trade and Free Trade

The Global Credit Crunch: What Should a Central Bank Do?
Martin S. Feldstein, President, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., and Allan H. Meltzer, Visiting Scholar, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.

Market Bailouts and the "Fed Put"
Featuring William Poole, President, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Former Member, Council of Economic Advisers.

Beyond Kyoto

Economic embrace: China and the US

Augustus Welby Northmore Pugin: God's Architect

Spiritual Classics: Rumi

Augustus Welby Northmore Pugin was one of Britain's greatest architects who lived a very short, but very productive life. He was born in 1812 and died in 1852 and even to contemporaries he seemed to be living like a speeded-up film. In three years alone, he built 22 churches, three cathedrals, three convents and a monastery. Rosemary Hill has written the first comprehensive biography of this complex and diverse genius.

Am I becoming a Marxist ?
James Delingpole writes for The Spectator magazine in the UK and is the author of the book How To Be Right. However in a recent issue of the magazine he wrote that he thought he 'might be turning into a Marxist'! What is it that Tories find they have in common with those who come from a Marxist background?

The political brain

Language and the human story

The dangers of teaching philosophy

What's social (and what's just) about social justice?

Capitalism as if the world matters: restructuring the global economy for a sustainable future
With Jonathon Porritt, author and founder director of Forum for the Future, Stewart Wallis, Executive Director, new economics foundation and Will Hutton, Chief Executive Officer, The Work Foundation

Sensational biblical archaeology and the latest topless (Mormon) calendar
Biblical archaeology is a debased discipline these days. There seems to be a new discovery almost every week with frequent claims for sensational archaeological findings like The Garden of Eden, Noah's Ark and the lost tomb of Jesus. Leading biblical archaeologist Eric Cline says it's time to fight off the charlatans and reclaim some credibility. Also, the latest topless calendar features male Mormon missionaries.

Old and New Blogs

Doing Business Blog

Unenumerated

Another blog for the day

A blog about candy, things made with sugar, things made with chocolate, you get the idea ... open your mouth, expand your mind

Rap your way to Success

Another economist with an educational company- Ryhtm,Rhyme,Results

Thanks to Rodrik

Mathematics for Economists

Another good set of lecture notes from Peter N. Ireland

Photo of the Day

A little bit of US history

Virginia Law from James City, 1682 covering Muslims and others;

An act to repeale a former law makeing Indians and others free.

WHEREAS by the 12 act of assembly held att James Citty the 3d day of October, Anno Domini 1670, entituled an act declareing who shall be slaves, it is enacted that all servants not being christians, being imported into this country by shipping shall be slaves, but what shall come by land shall serve if boyes and girles untill thirty yeares of age, if men or women, twelve yeares and noe longer; and for as much as many negroes, moores, mollatoes and others borne of and in heathenish, idollatrous, paganand mahometan parentage and country have heretofore, and hereafter may be purchased, procured, or otherwise obteigned as slaves of, from or out of such their heathenish country by some well disposed christian, who after such their obteining and purchaseing such negroe, moor, or molatto as their slave out of a pious zeale, have wrought the conversion of such slave to the christian faith, which by the laws of this country doth not manumitt them or make them free
…
And be it further enacted by the authority aforesaid that all servants except Turkes and Moores, whilest in amity with his majesty which from and after publication of this act shall be brought or imported into this country, either by sea or land, whether Negroes, Moors, Mollattoes or Indians, who and whose parentage and native country are not christian at the time of their first purchase of such servant by some christian, although afterwards, and before such their importation and bringing into this country, they shall be converted to the christian faith; and all Indians which shall hereafter be sold by our neighbouring Indians, or any other trafiqueing with us as for slaves are hereby adjudged, deemed and taken, and shall be adjudged, deemed and taken to be slaves to all intents.

via always interesting Chapati Mystery

Today's Explainers

Why America's Currency Is the World's Problem

Biofuel Demand Pushes Up Food Prices

Is factor productivity due to revert to its long-run mean?

Wanna Be President? Pass This Test

What Is the Value of Algebra?

Penny Foolish

Exploratory data analysis course

The Answer to the Horse Betting Quiz

How the super-rich just get richer

Innovating Our Way to Financial Crisis

Another Threat Made in China?

The Chinese government is disputing a report labeling it the world's most aggressive offender in probing for holes in other nations' Internet security and encouraging a looming global cyber showdown.

The report, issued Thursday by security software vendor McAfee Inc., said government-affiliated hackers in China are at the forefront of a brewing ''cyber Cold War'' still in its infancy.

Within two decades, according to McAfee, the scuffle could erupt into a worldwide conflict involving hundreds of countries attacking one another's online networks with sophisticated software.

-China disputes report calling it a key cyber warfare instigator

Everything for Sale

Inside India's Underground Trade in Human Remains

India has long been the world's primary source of bones used in medical study, renowned for producing specimens scrubbed to a pristine white patina and fitted with high-quality connecting hardware. In 1985, however, the Indian government outlawed the export of human remains, and the global supply of skeletons collapsed. Western countries turned to China and Eastern Europe, but those regions produce relatively few skeletons. They have little experience producing display-quality specimens, and their products are regarded as inferior.

Now, 22 years after India's export ban, there are signs that the trade never ended. Black-market vendors in West Bengal continue to supply human skeletons and skulls using the time-honored method: Rob graves, separate soft flesh from unyielding calcium, and deliver the bones to distributors — who assemble them and ship them to dealers around the globe.

Exports to North America are still small compared with pre-ban levels, but shipments are finding their way to American medical programs. Suppliers have ample incentive — it's a lucrative business. The skulls on the ground before me, for instance, would fetch an estimated $70,000 overseas....

In 1985, the Chicago Tribune reported that India had exported about 60,000 skulls and skeletons the year before. The supply was sufficient for every medical student in the developed world to buy a bone box along with their textbooks. Price: $300.

Bollywood Fact of the Day

In 2006, India's film business grossed about $2 billion, up from $1.5 billion in 2004, and PricewaterhouseCoopers forecasts revenue will leap to more than $4 billion over the next five years.

-Hooray for Bollywood

Support New Orleans

Make it Right

Sri Lanka- Selected Issues

Selected Issues and the Country Report

Blog of the Day

The Data Mine Shaft

Direct Instruction- Does it Work?

The Direct Approach

Direct Instruction (DI) is a relatively radical idea about how to teach elementary school kids (mostly). (There’s a short and glib Youtube video on DI here.) As you can see from that Youtube clip, Direct Instruction is also pretty straightforward. You work in groups of 5-10 kids (if possible) and constantly ask the kids questions as part of tightly scripted lessons. DI is not fancy or particularly clever, which is precisely why it’s such a radical idea. It’s just simple, rapid-fire question-and-answer. This goes against other educational ideals that pause more and use less interactive approaches. DI is more like high-energy coaching than teaching, with a close eye on anyone that’s falling behind. It’s so tightly scripted you might even think it sounds a little bit robotic. Nevertheless, that’s the basic idea. It was developed by an educational outsider named Siegfried Engelmann (who goes by Zig, a convention I will follow) to teach his 3rd grade fraternal twin sons.

Justice O'Connor's Brain

Supreme Court Forecasting Project

This project involved a friendly interdisciplinary competition to compare the accuracy of the different ways in which legal experts and political scientists assess and predict Supreme Court decision making. Legal scholars and political scientists have engaged in much debate about why the Supreme Court decides cases as it does, but this ongoing discussion is almost always retrospective in nature -- that is, scholars apply competing explanatory frameworks to existing Supreme Court decisions from the recent or not-so-recent past.

To invert the temporal link, during the Court's 2002 term, we conducted a study where we predicted the outcome of each argued case. Two methods of prediction were used, and we compared their relative accuracy. The results of the study have been published in the May 2004 issue of the Columbia Law Review. The study was also featured in a Symposium in Persepctives on Politics. We contrasted a statistical forecasting model (based on information derived from past Supreme Court decisions and certain characteristics of each pending case) with forecasts provides by legal experts (each of whom is an expert in some area of the Supreme Court's docket and many of whom clerked at the Court).

Shift work may cause cancer

Shift workers and firefighters have a higher risk of cancer than the general population and such work should be classified as probably or possibly carcinogenic, the International Agency for Research on Cancer said on Friday.

A team of 24 scientists who sifted through the evidence said more studies must confirm the link, but found that shift work that disturbs the body's internal clock appears to have cancer-causing effects, too.

This internal clock regulates circadian rhythms, a complex system that signals cells to produce various hormones at various times.

"Shiftwork that involves circadian disruption is probably carcinogenic to humans," the French-based IARC, the cancer agency of the World Health Organization, said in a statement. "Occupational exposure as a firefighter is possibly carcinogenic to humans," it added.

The statement, published as what the IARC calls a monograph, could affect a significant number of people.

"Nearly 20 percent of the working population in Europe and North America is engaged in shiftwork. Shiftwork is most prevalent in the health-care, industrial, transportation, communications, and hospitality sectors," the IARC said

-Shift work may cause cancer, world agency says

Some of their interesting monographs;
Betel-quid and areca-nut chewing and some areca-nut-derived nitrosamines

Smokeless Tobacco Products

Assorted

Pension Systems and Pension Reform in an Aging Society: an Introduction to the Debate

The supply and demand for Marijuana

Gay Cohabitation And Wages

The Latest Data On Immigration

Physician Reimbursement and Technology Adoption


Why Is Elvis on Burkina Faso postage stamps?

Fannie and Freddie are here to stay

The Causes of Global Warming: A Graphical Approach

Are the imbalances on the mend?

Why banking is an accident waiting to happen

Brad DeLong: Is the Dollar Leading Us into a Depression?


The White House and Other Economic Forecasts

Ending Famine, Simply by Ignoring the Experts

Facebook Founder Finds He Wants Some Privacy

At Wikipedia, Illustrators May Be Paid

Blogs of the Day

Econ 2 on-line MacroMind

Save the Internet

the empirical skeptic

nordicmodel

Unintended Consequences

Quote of the Day

“No one ever dropped down stupid and had to be rushed to a university.”
-Phil Musgrove

via Shanta

Teddy row teacher freed

The Spanish Muslim jurist, Imam Shatibi, who died in 1388, articulated the aims of the shariah as preservation of life, honour, property, religion and reason. Leading Muslim scholars in the Arab world today compound this classical Islamic approach. That's not to hide the reality of religious scripture, compiled in a world radically different from ours. Just as in Leviticus we find references to stoning sinners, in Muslim scripture there are some unpalatable references. But these are to be seen in the context of their time. What remain valid are the eternal truths that Shatibi, Locke and others enunciated. Our humanity must transcend adherence to scriptural literalism, especially if it leads to mayhem and loss of innocent lives. The whole purpose of religion is to bring order and harmony to our existence.

Islam is not a monolithic entity. Inherent within Muslim tradition is a plurality of thought, practice and reasoning that can help create a genuine Muslim renaissance or tajdid in Arabic. Just as scriptural references to stoning and flogging are cited by countries such as Saudi Arabia as justification for their horrid practices, in these same texts, we find that the Prophet Muhammad reprimanded his followers for stoning a person who attempted to flee. He also condemned those who killed innocent people. By drawing on these lessons, mainstream Muslims must illustrate that compassion, humanity and sense should override scriptural rigidity understood with anger and revenge.

More than any other Muslim community across the world, those of us who were born, raised and educated in the west have access to both cultures: Islam and the west. It is my generation that can bridge the gap between what seem like warring parties. Our arguments carry greater weight in the Muslim East. Western Muslims have a duty to continue developing what is a nascent phenomenon: Western Islam. We have no choice but to find common ground between our faith and our culture, Islam and the West, and then offer an alternative path to our brethren in the Muslim East.

The presence of millions of Muslims in the West is an asset with which we can bring civilisational harmony. But Western Muslims must, in the words of Chief Rabbi Jonathan Sacks, 'build our home together' with fellow citizens of all and no faith. It is our common bond, being human, which comes first. Our future must be a negotiated one. The Koran repeatedly calls us to think, contemplate and reflect. For how much longer will we be the laughing stock of the world? And all over a teddy bear.

-There's far more to Islam than a teddy

Venezuelans Win, Chavez Loses

Common sense wins in Venezuela

Data Watch

Databases on Development Data

via Rodrik

Current Middle East Policy of US

Enjoy Bird and Fortune's analysis-

America's First Hostage Crisis

I made the mistake of mentioning to him that in 1776 one-fifth of America’s trade ran through the Middle East and that the trade involved, in essence, large barrels of rum, Boston in particular, which were sent out of New England to the Ottoman Empire. There it was dumped and the barrels were filled up with opium. From there, the ships went to China and they dumped the opium in China and filled it up with tea and came back to New England.

Whereupon Jon Stewart said: "Let me get this straight. The Americans were giving them booze and drugs and we’re getting tea?"

I said, "It’s even worse. We dumped the stuff in Boston Harbor."

How’d you like to be on that show? I had to work very quickly.

We are going to start with an imaginary situation this morning. Imagine that you are a high-ranking American diplomat in the Middle East and you are about to meet with an emissary of a prominent Middle Eastern leader to discuss the possibility of establishing peace between this Middle Eastern kingdom and the United States.

You open your discussion by telling this Middle Eastern leader that the people of the United States desire nothing more than peace between your nation and his; have no animosity whatsoever toward the Middle East, to anybody in the Middle East; all Americans desire to do is to conduct their trade freely and bother no one.

And suppose, rather than responding and embracing these enlightening offers, the Arab representative says no, his country wants to go to war. Suppose he tells you that God has empowered his people to rule over all infidel states, including yours, and that if one of the believers should fall in this battle against infidels, then he shall alight immediately to paradise.

How, then, would you as an American diplomat respond? Well, probably you would respond by saying, "America will have no choice but to fight this threat. America has no option but to go to war." This was precisely the conclusion reached by the American ambassador, in this case the American ambassador to France, who first heard this emissary’s response.

His name was Thomas Jefferson. His interlocutor was one Abdul Rahman Adja, who was the envoy of the pasha of Tripoli, which is today in Libya. The date was March 1785. Pirates from Tripoli, from Algiers (what is today Algeria), Tunis, (which is today Tunisia), and Morocco—the so-called Barbary States—had seized dozens of American ships in the Mediterranean and kidnapped more than 100 American sailors.

America was facing its first hostage crisis in the Middle East. And, since so much of America’s trade went through this area, it actually posed a mortal threat, an existential threat, to the fledgling and fragile economy of the newly independent United States. Now, Jefferson wanted to fight the pirates. He first turned to the Europeans and asked them to form a coalition against the pirates. They turned him down. Jefferson had no option but to turn to his own United States.

But America had a problem. America did not have a navy in 1785. America had managed to survive its war of independence without one warship intact. They had all been captured, sunk, or sold off. Nor did the United States in 1785 have the means for creating a navy. The states were still loosely federated under the Articles of Confederation. There was no federal government. There was no government that was capable of raising taxes to make a navy. Moreover, many Americans were afraid of having a navy. They had recently had a bad experience with a navy, the British navy, and were afraid that if America created a navy, it could turn its guns on America’s inchoate democratic institutions; it was liable to get America embroiled in all sorts of nasty European entanglements.

And, while Jefferson wanted to fight, a great many Americans said: No. It is better to negotiate with the pirates, better perhaps to pay them off, which was the age-old European practice. We should really do everything we can, they said, to avoid getting bogged down in an open-ended war in the distant Middle East.

Book recommendations

Power, Faith, and Fantasy:America in the Middle East 1776 to the Present
by Michael Oren


"During Adams' presidency, America was paying about one fifth of its national revenues in bribery to Berbary pirates"

"The original statue of liberty shows a veiled Arab women holding a torch"

How Capitalism Was Built: The Transformation of Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia
by Anders Aslund
Read more about the book here

Why the Econometricians are Happy

A working paper for the day-
Lyttkens, C.H (2007) Why the Econometrician is in Good Spirits – a workshop through the looking glass;

This paper aims to explore the determinants of research-related quality of life (RRQoL) of econometricians in health economics. It is well-known (standard expression for not bothering to look up the references) that an extensive literature deals with the measurement and determinants of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of the general population. However, if the standard neo-classical paradigm applies (self-interested, utility-maximising behaviour, etc), scientists are of course much more interested in the wellbeing of scientists than of other people.

In addition to its intrinsic interest, this is an important issue for public policy. Analogously to the extra-welfarist approach in health economics (Hurley 2000), we may assume that the purpose of allocating funds to the scientific community is to maximise their RRQoL. We may safely assume that this interpretation is endorsed by the scientists in question (supplier-induced demand).

Assorted

Don't jump! Advice for goalkeepers from economic psychology

Republicans Report Much Better Mental Health Than Others

Babies 'show social intelligence'

A MapQuest for Our Money

Voices From Russia

Voted for Mr. Putin, “for our beloved,” because “he is smart and just.” “Things are not all good, but he’s trying. Pensions are paid, and I had a free eye surgery.”
— Antonina Kotova, a pensioner

Macroeconomic Advice from GMU professors;
The Dollar Is Falling, and That’s Good News- Tyler

A dollar dump? Not likely-Donald J. Boudreaux

The Danger from CT Scans

In the Nov. 29 2007 issue of The New England Journal of Medicine, David J. Brenner, Ph.D., and Eric J. Hall, Ph.D., from the Center for Radiological Research at Columbia University Medical Center, argue that the potential carcinogenic effects from using CT scans may be underestimated or overlooked. This is of particular concern, because perhaps one-third of all CT scans performed in the United States may not be medically necessary, the radiation researchers say.

It is estimated that more than 62 million CT scans per year are currently given in the United States, compared to three million 1980. Because CT scans result in a far larger radiation exposure compared with conventional plain-film X-ray, this has resulted in a marked increase in the average personal radiation exposure in the United States, which has about doubled since 1980, largely because of the increased CT usage.

It used to be widely believed that all radiological examinations were essentially harmless, because of the small amounts of radiation involved, but Drs. Brenner and Hall show that this is unlikely to be true for CT scans. In particular, Japanese atomic bomb survivors who were about two miles away from the explosions, actually received radiation doses quite similar to those from a CT scan. Sixty years of study of these survivors have provided direct evidence that there will be an increased individual cancer risk, though small, for those who have this same dose of radiation from CT scans. Although the individual risk is small, the large number of CT scans currently being given may result in a future public health problem. In particular, Drs. Brenner and Hall suggest that, in a few decades, about 1½ to 2 percent of all cancers in the United States may be due to the radiation from CT scans being done now.

-COLUMBIA RESEARCHERS SAY GROWTH OF CT SCAN USE INCREASES RISK OF HIGHER RADIATION EXPOSURES, MAY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT PUBLIC HEALTH PROBLEM

How about the following;
'Super' scanner shows key detail

The J-Curve or why politics matter more than economics?

"keep the confidential questions out of the recorded part"- presenter from Google

"emerging market is a country where politics matter as much as economics to the markets'

Ian Bremmer on his book, THE J CURVE: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall

For Discussion: Does politics or economics, matter more for markets in the long run?

What you don't see on CNN?

Rageh Omaar of Aljazeera reports from Swat Valley, Pakistan;

Does it make a difference?

Photos of the Day;

Who do you think is the most genuine?

Related;
Younger Muslims Tune In to Upbeat Religious Message;

The Middle East now has at least 370 satellite channels, nearly triple the number three years ago, according to Arab Advisors Group, a Jordan-based research firm. Among channels that offer news, movies and music videos are 27 dedicated to Islamic religious programming, up from five two years ago.

What Ails Arab World

There is an Arab proverb that says, “If you have no more shame left in you, then feel free to do what you will” and by observing the present Arab mood, one is struck by how much this proverb applies to the Arabs now, whether they are the general public or the ruling elite and intelligentsia.

Does it make a difference to the following children of Gaza?

How the Arab Mind Works

and its links with American politics- another classic from Bird and Fortune.

Have a great weekend.

Economic Hit Man Appears

The Secret History of the American Empire: Economic Hit Men, Jackals, and the Truth about Global Corruption
by John Perkins

Related;
Confessions -- or Fantasies -- of an Economic Hit Man? (from US State Dept.)

Pakistan for Beginner, US edition

Pakistan for Beginners- from Radio Open Source

Conversation with Omer Alvie

Conversation with Kanishk Tharoor

Conversation with Sabahat Ashraf

Cricket in India

The first private professional international cricket league in more than 30 years;

The Chandigarh Lions, led by New Zealander Chris Cairns, face the Delhi Jets, who boast Sri Lanka's Marvan Atapattu and England's Paul Nixon.

The six-team, 17-day Indian Cricket League includes stars like Brian Lara, Lance Klusener and Inzamam-ul-Haq.

But cricket's governing body, the International Cricket Council, has refused to recognise the competition.

The $25m (£12.5m) competition is led by legendary Indian cricketer and former captain Kapil Dev.

However, the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) has also refused to acknowledge the Indian Cricket League (ICL) and has threatened players with lengthy bans.

My Favorite Programs from BBC Radio

1. In Our Time

2. More or Less- here's the archive and Tim Harford has more

3. All in the Mind

Quickie Degrees for Corrupt Policians- Russia edition

But apparently the Duma's reputation for submissiveness obscures a little-known fact about its deputies: 218 boast advanced degrees. In fact, the Duma could very well be setting a record as the world's most academically distinguished legislative body: Almost half of its 450 members hold doctorates. By comparison, only one in six members of Germany's parliament, the Bundestag, can claim the same distinction.

Moscow's PhD-toting parliamentarians include chauvinistic blusterer and Duma Vice-Chairman Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who wrote a doctoral thesis titled "The Past, Present and Future of the Russian Nation." Another is Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov, whose dissertation arrives at the conclusion -- surprising for a communist -- that Russia has "exhausted its reserve of revolutionary upheavals." Could this be academic self-criticism?

A so-called candidate dissertation, which is similar to a master's thesis, also graces the resume of the new prime minister, Viktor Subkov. The former Soviet Communist Party official and long-standing confidant of President Vladimir Putin wrote his thesis on the "Refinement of Tax Mechanisms in the Mineral and Natural Resource Complex, Using the Leningrad Region as an Example."...

What else, they ask, could explain Vladimir Yakovlev's PhD? A recently dismissed minister for regional development in the cabinet, Yakovlev, wrote his dissertation while serving as the governor of St. Petersburg in 2001. While the governor allowed the city to fall into decline, he managed to attain academic distinction with a study on the "Scientific Basis of Effective Management of a Megalopolis."

Even Ramzan Kadyrov, who Putin recently appointed president of Chechnya, can count academic honors on his resume. The fact that his relationship with Russian grammar might be described as uneasy at best hasn't stopped the former Chechen separatist from earning his credentials as an economist with a polished thesis on the "Optimal Management of Contractual Relationships in the Construction Industry."...

Trained as an engineer, Gryzlov, a close of associate of President Putin, acquired a doctorate in political science while serving as Russia's interior minister. In his dissertation, entitled "Political Parties and Russian Transformation," Gryzlov, a man not exactly known for his intellect, revealed a surprisingly profound knowledge of the latest in American professional literature on the subject.

President Putin submitted his dissertation at the Mining Institute of St. Petersburg in 1997. The 218-page work, titled "Strategic Planning of the Renewal of the Minerals-Raw Materials Base of the Region in Conditions of the Formation of Market Relations," offers a detailed description of the quality of Russian gravel pits. But the work, which Putin and his doctoral advisor insist is authentic, also reveals his political ambitions.

In the thesis, Putin argued for greater state control of the raw materials economy and outlined a plan for restructuring the Russian economy. By comparing text passages Clifford Gaddy, an American economist specializing in Russia, was able to prove that entire paragraphs in Putin's thesis were simply paraphrased from a US study....

Depending on the quality and the field, the price of one of these quickie degrees can run anywhere from €3,000-35,000 ($4,452-51,937). On his first day in his new post in the parliament, Boris Vinogradov discovered just how intensive the trade in academic degrees is at the Duma. A young man walked into his office and promptly offered to mail him a dissertation -- needless to say, for cash. Vinogradov, already a professor, thanked the man and sent him on his way

-The Russian Parliament's Intellectual Giants

Photo of the Day

Nigeria Turns From Harsher Side of Islamic Law

Explainers for the Day

Questioning the virtues of the flat income tax

Bali: now the rich must pay

Should Americans Worry That Foreigners Hold Lots of Dollar Assets?

Is It Better to Live in Iceland Than in Norway?

Why central banks should be financial supervisors

New GDP figures

Fixing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

Reading the IPCC Report

Why Tie Showing to Selling?

Should the Fed raise interest rates?

High Performance Computing in India

The wheels of global general equilibrium adjustment are in motion

Is there a Bubble on the Stock Market in Mauritius?

Anatomy of a “fire sale”

Swiss Healthcare System

The "Balls in the Hat" Game

Women - not like men

Are societies hard-wired to tolerate income inequality?

Do coffee shops discriminate against women?

Proust Wasn't a Neuroscientist

Math History Podcast

THE FIBONACCI SEQUENCE;

1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34 … this is the beginning of the Fibonacci sequence, an infinite string of numbers named after, but not invented by, the 13th century Italian mathematician Fibonacci. It may seem like a piece of mathematical arcania, but the Fibonacci sequence is found to appear, time and time again, among the structures of the natural world and even in the products of human culture. From the Parthenon to pine cones, from the petals on a sunflower to the paintings of Leonardo da Vinci, the Fibonacci sequence seems to be written into the world around us.

Espresso Book Machine vs E-Book

Via 2blowhards

Development Consultants who don't know what they're talking

This hilarious. Rodrik writes about an email he got;

Dear Professor Roderick,
I hope you don’t mind me contacting you; I found your details online sometime ago while looking for experts in the field of Growth Diagnostics ... I work for ..., a public sector consultancy firm ... and we are part of a Framework consortium that provides expertise to the Department of International Development.
Following a recent meeting with DFID to discuss developing the consortium's capacity for Growth Diagnostics it was found that there are not many consultants with specific skills in this area and DFID wish to develop/engage with a group of consultants who can be called on to undertake work/assessments relating to Growth Diagnostics/Analytics, who already have a strong economics consultancy background, but who are particularly interested in working/developing professionally in this area.
...

We have been asked to draw up a list of interested parties/candidates, who may not necessarily have applied growth diagnostics in the field, but who feel they are particularly able/suited to the task.
The current plan would be for successful candidates to attend/ take part in some form of briefing/introduction by a senior DFID economist regarding DFID's approach to/plan for using growth diagnostics /analytics.
If this is something that you feel you would be interested in being a part of please contact me at your earliest convenience...

Rodrik has created a consulting industry.

Why Right-Brainers Will Rule the Future?

A review of A Whole New Mind: Why Right-Brainers Will Rule the Future By Daniel H. Pink

The two forces he labels “Asia” and “Automation” have changed the U.S. job market forever, pushing domestic labor into more creative practices. Another one, “Abundance,” adds a consumer factor to the evolution. In the last 30 years, Pink says, wealth has spread and deepened. Life is good, and “the information economy has produced a standard of living that would have been unfathomable in our grandparents’ youth.” With material needs met, people want more than functionality from their goods. They want pleasing aesthetics, and they elevate “less rational sensibilities—beauty, spirituality, emotion.” It’s a Big Idea, this epochal transition from Information Age to Conceptual Age, and the analysis of it could lead into demographic, financial, and geopolitical fields. In A Whole New Mind, Pink tracks it down to a smaller but still central terrain, the individual mind. For the transformations in jobs and goods, he claims, have a complement in the physiology of the brain, and in the styles of cognition that go with it. The Information Age solicits the powers of the left hemisphere, the aptitudes of analysis and numeracy and information management. The Conceptual Age solicits the powers of the right hemisphere, aptitudes of imagination, invention, and empathy. The left side, L-thinking, deals in pieces and series, while R-thinking makes pictures and discerns patterns. L-thinking breaks things down into parts. R-thinking assembles them into wholes. L-thinking conceives things by how they work, R-thinking by how they give pleasure and are meaningful. L-thinking fits a data-oriented economy, R-thinking an idea-oriented one.

That we have entered the latter condition Pink treats as plain. The example of Target stores proves the ascendancy, as it hires world-class designers to provide sleek toilet brushes and cool wastebaskets for budget-conscious consumers. But a problem lingers, he says: Information Age habits and assumptions remain in force. Information Age skills have served so well and yielded so much well-being that people don’t realize the conversion in process.

Pink’s book is an announcement of the turn, and an advice manual. The paradigm shift he takes care of in 60 pages, then devotes six chapters to ways of developing “a whole new mind.” Each chapter covers a new “sense” in a nomenclature that will thrill arts educators: Design, Story, Symphony, Empathy, Play, Meaning. Design adds beauty to function, Story adds drama to argument, Meaning adds, well, meaning to material plenty, etc. Pink supplies concrete tips for joining the movement: “Keep a Design Notebook,” he counsels, and “When you see a great design, make a note of it.” To cultivate empathy, eavesdrop on conversations and try to feel the others’ feelings. To deepen the sense of play, join online communities for gamers, or dissect a joke. Take an acting class, read Powers of Ten by Charles and Ray Eames, and learn to draw on the right side of the brain.

The relevance of Education

School and work : Does the Eastern Caribbean education system adequately prepare youth for the global economy

Abstract: As the global economy rapidly changes and new technologies are introduced, more highly skilled workers are required. In the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), firms struggle to fill skilled positions due to a lack of qualified candidates, while the number of unemployed low skilled workers is growing. This report is organized into six chapters. After this brief introduction, the second chapter makes the argument for why skills matter to the OECS countries. The subsequent three chapters emphasize how education (school) is intrinsically linked to the labor market, both in providing initial preparation and training and in updating workers' skills throughout adulthood (lifelong learning). Thus, the third chapter discusses how adequately the schools in the OECS prepare youth for the labor market. The fourth chapter focuses on the transition from the education system to the labor market. The fifth chapter analyzes the opportunities for workers to continue learning while in the labor force. The final chapter summarizes the main policy recommendations for improving education and training in the OECS. Three transversal themes run through the report: (i) deepening sub-regional collaboration; (ii) increasing involvement of the private sector in education and training; and (iii) enhancing collaboration across different levels of the education and training systems.

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