Have there been studies of the calibration of expert players in judgments of chess situations -- e.g., probability that white will win?
In terms of the amount and quality experience and feedback, chess players are at least as privileged as weather forecasters and racetrack bettors -- but they don't have the experience of expressing their judgments in probabilities. I [Kahneman] am guessing that the distinction between a game that is "certainly lost" and "probably lost" is one that very good players can make reliably, but I know of no evidence
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