How Wars will be fought in the 21st Century

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A decade ago, Chinese military theorists like the infamous colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui were already hinting at the importance of simultaneously striking multiple infrastructure layers in a confrontation with the US. In theory, the breakdown of one system would compound the effects on another, and the crippling of energy, government services, communications, the media, and health care and finance systems would interact in a downward spiral.

Finally, informational dependencies and e-attack methodologies are advancing exponentially; the more complex our society becomes, the greater its inherent vulnerabilities (a law that software writers certainly understand). A digital assault today would outrage and inconvenience Americans, but we'd pull through. Tomorrow could be different. Military technologies and techniques can develop with distressing speed: In 1918, those rickety World War I airplanes were little more than romantic irritants; by 1943, a mere quarter-century later, long-range bombers were flattening entire cities. And the pace of technological change today is considerably greater than it was in the 1920s and 1930s.

The military maxim that applies is that, while you may hope for the best, you had best prepare for the worst (a principle violated, fatally, in Iraq). If the US vigorously pursues offensive and defensive e-war capabilities but the skeptics turn out to be right, we will have wasted only time and money. But if the US doesn't prepare and those who dismiss the digital-warfare threat are wrong, we might face a devastating surprise attack. To borrow a line from Frank Zappa, Pearl Harbor might look like "strictly a pup-tent affair."

A well-prepared, resourceful opponent could create an atmosphere of collapse, as America's most-advanced military systems failed, citizens panicked, and the economy froze. The enemy's goal would be to pressure Washington into an early settlement that amounted to a de facto surrender.