David Cutler, Winnie Fung, Michael Kremer, Monica Singhal
We examine the effects of malaria on educational attainment by exploiting geographic variation in malaria prevalence in India prior to a nationwide eradication program in the 1950s. Malaria eradication resulted in gains in literacy and primary school completion rates of approximately 12 percentage points. These estimates imply that the eradication of malaria can explain about half of the gains in these measures of educational attainment between the pre- and post-eradication periods in areas where malaria was prevalent. The effects are not present in urban areas, where malaria was not considered to be a problem in the pre-eradication period. The results cannot be explained by convergence across areas. We find gains for both men and women as well as for members of scheduled castes and tribes, a traditionally disadvantaged group.
"Many Children Left Behind? Textbooks and Test Scores in Kenya" (Michael Kremer, Paul Glewwe and Sylvie Moulin)
Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation
Jordi Gali, Mark Gertler
We describe some of the main features of the recent vintage macroeconomic models used for monetary policy evaluation. We point to some of the key differences with respect to the earlier generation of macro models, and highlight the insights for policy that these new frameworks have to offer. Our discussion emphasizes two key aspects of the new models: the significant role of expectations of future policy actions in the monetary transmission mechanism, and the importance for the central bank of tracking of the flexible price equilibrium values of the natural levels of output and the real interest rate. We argue that both features have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy.
Do Political Parties Matter? Evidence from U.S. Cities
Fernando Ferreira, Joseph Gyourko
We examine whether partisan political differences have important effects on policy outcomes at the local level using a new panel data set of mayoral elections in the United States. Applying a regression discontinuity design to deal with the endogeneity of the mayor's party, we find that party labels do not affect the size of government, the allocation of spending or crime rates, even though there is a large political advantage to incumbency in terms of the probability of winning the next election. The absence of a strong partisan impact on policy in American cities, which is in stark contrast to results at the state and federal levels of government, appears due to certain features of the urban environment associated with Tiebout sorting. In particular, there is a relatively high degree of household homogeneity at the local level that appears to provide the proper incentives for local politicians to be able to credibly commit to moderation and discourages strategic extremism.
What Have We Learned From Market Design? Alvin E. Roth
This essay discusses some things we have learned about markets, in the process of designing marketplaces to fix market failures. To work well, marketplaces have to provide thickness, i.e. they need to attract a large enough proportion of the potential participants in the market; they have to overcome the congestion that thickness can bring, by making it possible to consider enough alternative transactions to arrive at good ones; and they need to make it safe and sufficiently simple to participate in the market, as opposed to transacting outside of the market, or having to engage in costly and risky strategic behavior. I'll draw on recent examples of market design ranging from labor markets for doctors and new economists, to kidney exchange, and school choice in New York City and Boston.
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