Thursday, February 28, 2008

Your Macroeconomics Briefing for the Day

That '70s Show by ALLAN H. MELTZER
Is the Federal Reserve an independent monetary authority or a handmaiden beholden to political and market players? Has it reverted to its mistaken behavior in the 1970s? Recent actions and public commitments, including Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony to Congress yesterday -- where he warned of a steeper decline and suggested that more rate cuts lie ahead -- leave little doubt on both counts.

An independent central bank is supposed to maintain the value of the currency and prevent inflation. In the 1970s and again now, Federal Reserve officials repeatedly promised themselves and each other that they would lower inflation. But as soon as the unemployment rate ticked up a bit, the promises were forgotten.

People soon recognized that avoiding possible recession overwhelmed any concern about inflation. Many concluded that inflation would increase over time and that the Fed would do little more than talk. Prices and wages fell very little in recessions. The result was inflation and stagnant growth: stagflation.

It's beginning to happen again. Unlike the response of wages and prices in the low inflation 1990s, expectations of rising inflation now delay or stop price and wage adjustment, inhibiting growth.

"Does Stabilizing Inflation Contribute to Stabilizing Economic Activity?"

The Importance of Economic Education and Financial Literacy
- Mishkin
The Federal Reserve's mission of conducting monetary policy and maintaining a stable financial system depends upon the participation and support of an educated public. Accomplishing this mission involves trade-offs and tough decisions. As the Fed pursues the monetary policy objectives that have been set out for us by Congress--to pursue price stability, maximum employment, and moderate long-term interest rates--it is essential that the public understand our objectives and our actions. Educating the public about the reasoning behind our decisions helps build confidence in our economic system--another critical factor in keeping our economy running smoothly

Not (Yet) a 'Minsky Moment'

Will East Asia suffer the US slowdown?

Roubini: FHLB Lending ‘Reckless’

Fed Critiques: Too Timid or Too Aggressive?

Ofheo vs. Case-Shiller: A Primer

Your friendly neighbourhood inflation

More bad news on inflation, and yet Bernanke signals faster money growth

More on the Inflation Debate

Bernanke's tightrope act

Bernstein Blames `Too Much Math' for Subprime Crisis

Peter Morici Says U.S. Economy In a `Lot of Trouble'

Chertkow Sees Dollar Falling Below $1.55 Versus Euro

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