Prob(Gore pres. | Gore nom.)
= 2.1%/1.7% = 123.5%
Therefore, if Gore is nominated, the probability he'll be elected president is 123.5%!
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12 years ago
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Prob(Gore pres. | Gore nom.)
= 2.1%/1.7% = 123.5%
Therefore, if Gore is nominated, the probability he'll be elected president is 123.5%!
2 comments:
Clearly the alert rational investors think there is a positive probability that Gore will win the Republican nonomination or win as a write in candidate.
I noticed that Obama winds * Clinton wins > Democrat wins so, evidently, they rationally forsee that they too have a positive chance of winning as a third party candidate (oh nooooo did I mention that it is possible that Clinton will run as a third party candidate noooo it's uhm transactions costs which make markets look inefficient even if everyone is rational.
Obama wins + Clinton wins > Democrat wins. Economic agents are perfectly rational but some of us can't type.
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