Since last summer the US economy has slowed down noticeably, and is probably entering a recession. Despite talk of decoupling, it is clear that other countries are also slowing down at least to some extent. In its most recent forecast, the IMF World Economic Outlook revised downward the growth rate for virtually every region, including China. The overall global growth rate for 2008 has been marked down by 1.1% (from 5.2 % in July 2007, just before the sub-prime mortgage crisis hit, to 4.1 % as of January 29, 2008). And prospects continue to deteriorate. Yet commodity prices have found their second wind over precisely this period! Up some 25% or more since August 2007, by a number of indices. So much for the growth explanation.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
The delinking of world growth and commodity price inflation
Jeffrey Frankel asks- How to explain commodity prices up while the economy turns down? ;