Sunday, January 28, 2007

Guess the country


The following is the IMF annual review of a small state's economy;

"The government of ________ has adopted an ambitious reform program in its endeavor to pull the economy from decades of fiscal weakness-characterized by persistent fiscal deficits, a triple-digit debt burden, endemic arrears, and a large civil service-and declining growth rates. The reform agenda includes comprehensive tax reforms, civil service downsizing, measures to improve the investment climate, plans to reform the ailing social security system, and an impending strategy to regularize relations with creditors. These efforts have been complemented by extensive outreach to build public support. Successful implementation of the ongoing and planned reforms could mark a watershed for _________'s economic prospects.

The reform drive has benefited from an upswing in recent economic activity. The economy is experiencing its third consecutive year of high growth, driven by a construction boom in hotels and housing, as well as projects related to the 2007 Cricket World Cup. Growth in 2006 is expected to reach 8 percent, among the highest in the region. Over the medium term however, growth will slow as the construction boom winds down. Inflation has remained low, largely reflecting the stability provided by the regional quasi-currency board arrangement.

Fiscal outcomes deteriorated in 2005 but are expected to improve in 2006. Data till the first half of 2006 show an improvement in the fiscal position, largely due to revenue gains, while capital expenditure increased sharply in preparation for the Cricket World Cup. The government was able to access the regional government securities market-the first time ever for ________-and use proceeds to partly pay off high-end debt. Despite these efforts, arrears continued to accumulate and the debt stock remains in excess of 100 percent of GDP.

The external current account deficit increased to 15 percent of GDP in 2005 and is projected to widen further to 20 percent of GDP in 2006, but will be fully financed by foreign direct investment.

The financial sector faces risks in the context of a lending boom-by both, the banking and non-banking financial sector-and already high non-performing loan levels at locally-incorporated banks. Some progress has been made in banking sector supervision with the implementation of the revisions to the uniform Banking Act. Legislation for the supervision of the non-bank financial sector (by the Financial Services Regulatory Commission) has been prepared but is yet to be approved by the Parliament. The authorities are continuing to strengthen their Anti Money-Laundering framework."

Here's the government's website.
IMF's PIN

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