Macroeconomic Data

How they are able to manage the Chadian economy with such data deficiencies is truly remarkable;

“The insights in this paper are constrained by data limitations, in terms of both quality and quantity. BOP data are available only on an annual basis. The first full year of oil production, 2004, is also the most recent year for which disaggregated export data are available. Only preliminary 2005 balance of payments data are available. There are no data available on productivity and real wages.

Moreover, data collection methodologies are not reliable. Because Chad’s balance of payments data are compiled from surveys of large exporting companies rather than customs data, they are subject to errors and frequent revision. Huge revisions of the 2002 balance of payments data were made in 2005 based on new information provided by the oil consortium. The revisions showed that there had been large errors and omissions and large swings in short-term capital flows in the crucial pipeline construction years.

It appears from the recent data revisions that oil-related imports increased sharply in 2002, but all other import categories declined markedly in that year only. This raises a question whether non-oil import figures might have been revised to reduce the size of the change in the aggregated number. For example, in 2002, a more extensive multi-country survey was conducted on intra-CEMAC livestock trade; as a result, Chad’s livestock export numbers were almost tripled in 2003. The Bank of Central African States (BEAC), which produces balance of payments data for Chad, chose not to revise the estimates of livestock exports retroactively.

Data on the direction of trade, especially in recent years, are inconsistent with the figures provided by trading partners. Also, the significant 2002 revisions are reflected in current account data but not in the data on the composition or direction of trade. This paper mostly uses partner country trade data.”