Too Efficient Family Planning?

A new report on Chinese population;

"China's population will increase by 200 million in the next thirty years, according to a report published on Thursday.

The report by the State Population and Family Planning Commission paints a clear picture of China's population situation and outlines plans to resolve current population issues.

The report says the implementation of the family-planning policy in 1973 has reduced Chinese women's fertility rate to about 1.8 by mid and late 1990s.

China's population is expected to reach 1.36 billion by 2010 and 1.45 billion by 2020. The peak will come in 2033 with a total population of 1.5 billion, says the report.

It says China is facing an aging population, with seniors over 60 currently numbering 143 million, or 11 percent of the total.

By 2020, there will be 234 million people over the age of 60, accounting for 16 percent of the country's total population, a sharp rise on the 9.9 percent in 2000.

The report estimates that by the late 2040s, those aged over 60 will number 430 million, or 30 percent of the country's total population, with more than 320 million - or 22 percent - over 65.

The population of those over 80, the report says, will reach 22 million and 83 million in 2020 and 2050, respectively.

The report predicts that China will face increased tensions caused by the conflict between a large population and limited resources. By the end of 2016, China's labor force aged 15 to 64 will number 1.01 billion, far exceeding the total number of workers in all developed countries.

The report points out that many Chinese workers will not be qualified for international competition because of low health and educational status.

Statistics show that China reports 800,000 to 1.2 million abnormal newborn babies each year, accounting for four to six percent of births. The figure has continued to rise.

Mental illness is on the rise and diseases such as AIDS continue to threaten public health, the report says.

The report suggests maintaining and improving the family-planning policy, in an effort to restrict the overall population to 1.36 billion in 2010."

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